How to Count Cards in Blackjack - Basic & Advanced Techniques

Learn how to count cards in blackjack with our FREE guide. Master card counting with our free trainer & find strategies to help you beat the casino.

Card counting is one of the best strategies for winning at blackjack. Our guide breaks down how to count cards into simple steps that anyone can follow. Get in some practice on our free card counting trainer, and you’ll be one step closer to being a winning blackjack player.

Read more Card reading helps players determine who will have the probable advantage in the next hand in blackjack by keeping a tally of low and high-value cards in the game.

Many players have a perception that card counting requires a genius level of intelligence. In reality, card counting strategies vary in difficulty. Some basic card reading strategies use a simple tally system that anyone can do. Advanced counting systems have complex point values that give players greater accuracy but require precise calculations.

Card counting helps players increase their bets at the right time in real money blackjack games and minimize their losses during cold streaks.

Card counters (also known as advantage players) use card reading to change their plays depending on the composition of cards left in the dealer’s shoe. All these factors combined help players reverse the casino’s edge in blackjack. In essence, card counting works like this:

  1. A player assigns a negative, positive, or zero value to face and number cards.
  2. They maintain a ‘running count’ based on the cards dealt in the game.
  3. Once they feel confident of the ‘true count’, a player can alter their bets depending on their advantage.
  4. As fewer cards are left in the shoe, the player improves their true count and makes more decisive wagers. You need patience, lots of practice, and attention to detail, but anyone can learn this blackjack strategy. Given card counting is one of the most effective strategies to winning at blackjack, it is worth your time and effort.

Blackjack Academy logoLearn the Most Popular Card Counting System - Hi-Lo SEASON 6 / LESSON 3 02:52 Blackjack card counting strategies don’t come any easier than the Hi-Lo system. This is the simplest and most popular strategy to learn, ideal for newer or casual blackjack players.

How to Count Cards in Blackjack with the Hi-Lo System

The Hi-Lo system breaks cards into three camps, each with a specific value:

Hi-Lo Count Value Levels

Value System Card Types Value
High Cards 10, J, Q, K, A -1
Neutral Cards 7, 8, 9 0
Low Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 1
Value System Card Types Value
High Cards 10, J, Q, K, A -1
Neutral Cards 7, 8, 9 0
Low Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 1

High cards are good for players, but they get a -1 value because the fewer high cards are left in the deck, the more a player’s advantage decreases. Low cards are beneficial to the dealer, which is why they get a +1 value. 7s, 8s, and 9s don’t benefit the dealer or the player, so they get a value of 0.

The Hi-Lo strategy is called a ‘balanced’ counting system because of the combination of High, Neutral, and Low cards in a deck equal to zero.

Using these metrics, the Hi-Lo system requires you to calculate a running total of all cards played in the game, including the dealer and other players’ hands. This is called the ‘running count’. Let’s run through an example of Classic Blackjack to explain:

  1. Hi-Lo strategy begins once the dealer introduces a new shoe to the table. At this point, the running count is 0, because no cards have been dealt yet.
  2. Depending on the blackjack game, the cards will be dealt in a particular order around the table. From here, you must look at the cards dealt so far and calculate the ‘running count’. Blackjack Count Strategy running count28. Based on the cards in the picture and Hi-Lo’s metrics, we know Player 1’s hand equals 0, and the same goes for Player 2. Player 3 has a Jack and an Ace, which equals -2. This gives us a running count of -2 so far.
  3. As players make more moves in the game, you should add these cards to your running count.
  4. Let’s say Players 1 and 2 decide to hit. Player 1 receives a 6, which brings the running count to -1 but Player 2 is dealt a 4, which also has a value of +1. Player 3 stands. This brings your current running total to 0. Blackjack Count StrategyNow we’ll add the dealer’s cards. The dealer has a 5 up-card and turns their hole card, which is a King. Added together, these have a value of 0, meaning our running count remains unchanged.

Blackjack Count Strategy Dealer Hits and StandsThe dealer decides to hit and deals themself a 4. This is a low card, worth -1. The dealer stands, which gives you a running total of -1 by the end of the round.

Blackjack Count Strategy Running Count IncreasesAs the running count increases in blackjack, so does the player’s advantage. This is when you should increase your bets. As the running count decreases, the casino has the advantage. You should lower your bets to minimize your losses.

OGCOM AvatarOG PRO TIPYou can quicken your card counting using the Meaningful Pairs technique, as popularized by MIT Blackjack Team member Mike Aponte. Instead of adjusting your calculations on each card as it appears on the table, calculate the running count in pairs. You’ll soon find many pairs ‘cancel’ each other’s count, thereby reducing the number of calculations you must make.

What is ‘True Count’ in Blackjack? How Does it Affect Card Counting?

Card counting may sound easy so far, but online casinos complicate the system by adding more decks to the game. This makes it harder to identify the concentration of high and low cards left in the shoe. Players will struggle to make accurate bets on their running count because their advantage in six or 8-deck blackjack games is skewed compared to single-deck 21.

This calls for another step in the Hi-Lo system: the ‘true count’. This calculation tells the player their advantage at any point in a multi-deck blackjack game. To convert your running count into the true count, simply divide your running count by the number of decks remaining in the game, rounded to the nearest half-deck.

True count = running count / decks remaining

Let’s look at another example:

You’re in an 8-deck blackjack game, with a running count of +7 so far. You realize there are roughly four decks left in the shoe, which gives you a true count of +1.75, or 2 when rounded up.

As the true count increases, so does your advantage. Players should bet proportionally more as their advantage increases and decrease their wagers to as little as possible when the house has the advantage.

How Much Should I Bet When Counting Cards?

Betting styles and sizes in card counting depend on a variety of factors: bankroll size, a player’s appetite for risk, blackjack rules, and betting strategies. Older gambling guides recommend specific betting patterns in card counting, but many casinos are aware of these already and use them to fish out card counters.

Here’s a simple equation many players use to determine how much they should bet when card counting:

Betting amount = true count – 1 betting unit

If you had 1 betting unit worth $10 and a true count of +3, then your betting amount would be $20. This is because 3 – 1 = 2, and 2 betting units equals $20.

This system is basic, but it helps you bet proportionately and stay within your betting limits.

How to Count Cards with 1 Deck

Using the Hi-Lo system above, players only need the running count to assess their advantage in single-deck games. True count isn’t required. That means you can spend more time applying basic strategy to your card counting.

Single-deck blackjack games are great for new card counters. They give the best odds for players, and it’s easier for beginner counters to track their advantage when fewer decks are involved. Plus, the house edge is a mere 0.16% in single-deck blackjack.

Online casinos are aware of these factors and will sometimes add restrictions to single-deck blackjack games to tip the odds in their favor. Limiting re-splits or letting the dealer hit on a soft 17 are common rules that restrict a player’s moves, and consequently their winnings.

How to Count Cards with Multiple Decks

With any balanced counting system like Hi-Lo, players must convert their running count into the true count when playing multi-deck blackjack games. The true count ensures every card counting system can be used in blackjack, regardless of the number of decks in play. This helps you adjust your bets to your advantage, and assess how many high-value cards are left in the shoe.

Tips for Mastering Card Counting

Card counting systems can be simple, but some players struggle to keep count when they combine it with basic strategy. To be successful, you need to practice until card counting becomes automatic. Try out the exercises below.

  1. Take a single deck of cards and keep a running count through all the cards.
  2. Remove one card from the deck and keep a running count; you should know what card value you removed by the end.
  3. Time yourself — the more cards you can count accurately within the same period, the more your card counting skills will improve. Using the Hi-Lo system above, players only need the running count to assess their advantage in single-deck games. True count isn’t required. That means you can spend more time applying basic strategy to your card counting.

Single-deck blackjack games are great for new card counters. They give the best odds for players, and it’s easier for beginner counters to track their advantage when fewer decks are involved. Plus, the house edge is a mere 0.16% in single-deck blackjack.

Online casinos are aware of these factors and will sometimes add restrictions to single-deck blackjack games to tip the odds in their favor. Limiting re-splits or letting the dealer hit on a soft 17 are common rules that restrict a player’s moves, and consequently their winnings.

How to Count Cards with Multiple Decks

With any balanced counting system like Hi-Lo, players must convert their running count into the true count when playing multi-deck blackjack games. The true count ensures every card counting system can be used in blackjack, regardless of the number of decks in play. This helps you adjust your bets to your advantage, and assess how many high-value cards are left in the shoe.

Tips for Mastering Card Counting

Card counting systems can be simple, but some players struggle to keep count when they combine it with basic strategy. To be successful, you need to practice until card counting becomes automatic. Try out the exercises below.

  1. Take a single deck of cards and keep a running count through all the cards.
  2. Remove one card from the deck and keep a running count; you should know what card value you removed by the end.
  3. Time yourself — the more cards you can count accurately within the same period, the more your card counting skills will improve.

Advanced Blackjack Card Counting Strategies

Hi-Lo is good for beginners, but players wanting more precision in their card counting should learn the Omega II and Wong Halves systems. These Level II and Level III systems in card counting are for intermediate and expert players respectively and require greater accuracy for success. While more complex, these systems offer players greater betting efficiency in blackjack.

How to Count Cards Using the Omega II System

Unlike Hi-Lo, which bases its count values across +/-1, Omega II forms its values across +/-2, making it a multi-level system. This means players must calculate additional values to reach a running count.

Omega II Count Value Levels

Cards Point Value
4, 5, 6 2
2, 3, 7 1
8, A 0
9 -1
10, J, Q, K -2

In Omega II, players keep a running count using the same method as Hi-Lo. Omega II is a balanced card counting system, just like Hi-Lo, meaning the shoe starts at 0 and players will also have to calculate a true count in multi-deck games. The formula for determining true count is the same for Omega II. Players just need to divide their running count by the number of decks left in the shoe.

Omega II’s value levels give you greater accuracy in determining your advantage based on the true count. This helps you make bets that are more proportional to your advantage and make better moves on blackjack deviation strategies. The trade-off though is that you must be exact in your counting, otherwise you lose any benefit.

Count value aside, Omega II has one other rule. Players must also keep a side count of Aces dealt in the game, too. This count helps players determine the number of Aces left in the shoe, and consequently their chances of getting blackjack.

How to Count Cards Using the Wong Halves System

Wong Halves is the most complicated card counting system in blackjack. Like Omega II it’s a multi-level system, but it uses three value levels. Only players that have already mastered another card counting system should give Wong Halves a try — this system can break beginners.

Wong Halves Count Value Levels

Cards Point Value
5 1.5
3, 4, 6 1
2, 7 0.5
8 0
9 -0.5
10, J, Q, K, A 0

Unlike other card counting strategies, Wong Halves uses fractions in its values. This makes card counting very difficult for players, especially considering the various distractions in a blackjack game.

The flipside though is that Wong Halves is extremely accurate in predicting the player’s advantage. It has a 0.99 betting correlation out of 1.00, meaning it is nearly perfect when it comes to predicting good bets.

To count cards using Wong Halves, keep a running count of cards in play, just like you would in any other card counting system. Wong Halves is a balanced system, so players need to start their count at 0 whenever the deck is shuffled and incorporate true count into their strategy.

With betting in Wong Halves, you should increase your wager size when their true count increases. Likewise, you should reduce them to as little as nothing when the dealer has the advantage.

Betting styles in Wong Halves can also vary. Some players multiply their true count by the minimum bet limit at the table to determine their bet size. Others subtract one betting unit from the true count to decide how much they want to wager. It depends entirely on the player and their betting style.

Which Card Counting System is the Best for Blackjack?

This depends entirely on a player’s accuracy and dedication to practice. Level II and Level III systems like Wong Halves require perfect calculations from players to work. Otherwise, the accumulation of small errors made across these advanced counting systems can erase any profit players make.

OGCOM AvatarOG Pro TipFor most, the Hi-Lo system is simple enough to grasp and it has a positive influence on their gameplay. When combined with basic strategy, Hi-Lo helps players make smarter bets and moves in blackjack.

Hi-Lo is good for beginners, but players wanting more precision in their card counting should learn the Omega II and Wong Halves systems. These Level II and Level III systems in card counting are for intermediate and expert players respectively and require greater accuracy for success. While more complex, these systems offer players greater betting efficiency in blackjack.

How to Count Cards Using the Omega II System

Unlike Hi-Lo, which bases its count values across +/-1, Omega II forms its values across +/-2, making it a multi-level system. This means players must calculate additional values to reach a running count.

Omega II Count Value Levels

Cards Point Value
4, 5, 6 2
2, 3, 7 1
8, A 0
9 -1
10, J, Q, K -2
Cards Point Value
4, 5, 6 2
2, 3, 7 1
8, A 0
9 -1
10, J, Q, K -2

In Omega II, players keep a running count using the same method as Hi-Lo. Omega II is a balanced card counting system, just like Hi-Lo, meaning the shoe starts at 0 and players will also have to calculate a true count in multi-deck games. The formula for determining true count is the same for Omega II. Players just need to divide their running count by the number of decks left in the shoe.

Omega II’s value levels give you greater accuracy in determining your advantage based on the true count. This helps you make bets that are more proportional to your advantage and make better moves on blackjack deviation strategies. The trade-off though is that you must be exact in your counting, otherwise you lose any benefit.

Count value aside, Omega II has one other rule. Players must also keep a side count of Aces dealt in the game, too. This count helps players determine the number of Aces left in the shoe, and consequently their chances of getting blackjack.

How to Count Cards Using the Wong Halves System

Wong Halves is the most complicated card counting system in blackjack. Like Omega II it’s a multi-level system, but it uses three value levels. Only players that have already mastered another card counting system should give Wong Halves a try — this system can break beginners.

Wong Halves Count Value Levels

Cards Point Value
5 1.5
3, 4, 6 1
2, 7 0.5
8 0
9 -0.5
10, J, Q, K, A 0
Cards Point Value
5 1.5
3, 4, 6 1
2, 7 0.5
8 0
9 -0.5
10, J, Q, K, A 0

Unlike other card counting strategies, Wong Halves uses fractions in its values. This makes card counting very difficult for players, especially considering the various distractions in a blackjack game.

The flipside though is that Wong Halves is extremely accurate in predicting the player’s advantage. It has a 0.99 betting correlation out of 1.00, meaning it is nearly perfect when it comes to predicting good bets.

To count cards using Wong Halves, keep a running count of cards in play, just like you would in any other card counting system. Wong Halves is a balanced system, so players need to start their count at 0 whenever the deck is shuffled and incorporate true count into their strategy.

With betting in Wong Halves, you should increase your wager size when their true count increases. Likewise, you should reduce them to as little as nothing when the dealer has the advantage.

Betting styles in Wong Halves can also vary. Some players multiply their true count by the minimum bet limit at the table to determine their bet size. Others subtract one betting unit from the true count to decide how much they want to wager. It depends entirely on the player and their betting style.

Which Card Counting System is the Best for Blackjack?

This depends entirely on a player’s accuracy and dedication to practice. Level II and Level III systems like Wong Halves require perfect calculations from players to work. Otherwise, the accumulation of small errors made across these advanced counting systems can erase any profit players make.

OGCOM AvatarOG Pro TipFor most, the Hi-Lo system is simple enough to grasp and it has a positive influence on their gameplay. When combined with basic strategy, Hi-Lo helps players make smarter bets and moves in blackjack.

Live Online Blackjack Card Counting

Any searches online for ‘card counting’ and ‘live blackjack’ generate passionate and often conflicting advice. The truth is that while card counting in live blackjack is possible, it is very difficult. Online casinos use several methods to reduce or erase a card counter’s advantage in live blackjack, including:

  1. Continuous Shuffling Machines (CSM): These devices continually shuffle decks, making card counting impossible for players.
  2. Deck Penetration: Some online casinos replace 8-deck shoes once 50% of the cards have been played, meaning card counting is ineffective.
  3. Rounds Per Hour: Live blackjack games are slower, which limits the number of hands played and the card counter’s overall winnings.
  4. Blackjack Rules: Variations like 6:5 payouts or the dealer hitting on soft 17 can increase the house edge so much it voids card counting.
  5. Card Scanning: Dealers sometimes scan cards before adding them to the table. Backstage, the casino’s systems will analyze players’ betting patterns and the table’s cards to identify any counting. If you want to play live blackjack, look for online casinos that pay 3:2 for blackjack, like Betway or LeoVegas. Find tables where the dealer manually shuffles cards or uses machines like batch shufflers. Depending on deck penetration, these systems will still enable you to count cards. Finally, look for live games with favorable blackjack rules for players.

Any searches online for ‘card counting’ and ‘live blackjack’ generate passionate and often conflicting advice. The truth is that while card counting in live blackjack is possible, it is very difficult. Online casinos use several methods to reduce or erase a card counter’s advantage in live blackjack, including:

  1. Continuous Shuffling Machines (CSM): These devices continually shuffle decks, making card counting impossible for players.
  2. Deck Penetration: Some online casinos replace 8-deck shoes once 50% of the cards have been played, meaning card counting is ineffective.
  3. Rounds Per Hour: Live blackjack games are slower, which limits the number of hands played and the card counter’s overall winnings.
  4. Blackjack Rules: Variations like 6:5 payouts or the dealer hitting on soft 17 can increase the house edge so much it voids card counting.
  5. Card Scanning: Dealers sometimes scan cards before adding them to the table. Backstage, the casino’s systems will analyze players’ betting patterns and the table’s cards to identify any counting. If you want to play live blackjack, look for online casinos that pay 3:2 for blackjack, like Betway or LeoVegas. Find tables where the dealer manually shuffles cards or uses machines like batch shufflers. Depending on deck penetration, these systems will still enable you to count cards. Finally, look for live games with favorable blackjack rules for players.

Blackjack Card Counting Apps

There are over 100 different card counting apps for blackjack available for Android and iPhone, but users should beware. Some of these apps offer features that will count cards for you in real money blackjack games. This is illegal in the US, as assistance from an app is considered cheating. Casinos are in their right to ban you and withhold winnings if you’re caught using these apps in real money games.

Blackjack card counting apps for practice however are perfectly fine. Check out our recommendations of the best blackjack apps to help you become a blackjack expert.

There are over 100 different card counting apps for blackjack available for Android and iPhone, but users should beware. Some of these apps offer features that will count cards for you in real money blackjack games. This is illegal in the US, as assistance from an app is considered cheating. Casinos are in their right to ban you and withhold winnings if you’re caught using these apps in real money games.

Blackjack card counting apps for practice however are perfectly fine. Check out our recommendations of the best blackjack apps to help you become a blackjack expert.

Learn Basic Blackjack Strategy

Don’t even consider card counting at the casino if you haven’t already memorized basic strategy. It’s impossible to win at blackjack by card counting alone, and basic strategy gives the statistically best move for players for any hand scenario in 21.

With basic strategy, players decrease the casino’s 2% edge to 0.5%. Card counting only gives players a 1% profit margin, meaning any benefit is immediately lost if gamblers forego basic blackjack strategy.

Don’t even consider card counting at the casino if you haven’t already memorized basic strategy. It’s impossible to win at blackjack by card counting alone, and basic strategy gives the statistically best move for players for any hand scenario in 21.

With basic strategy, players decrease the casino’s 2% edge to 0.5%. Card counting only gives players a 1% profit margin, meaning any benefit is immediately lost if gamblers forego basic blackjack strategy.

Understand Basic Blackjack Rules

The type of blackjack game you play can heavily influence your odds of winning at 21. Some games, like Blackjack Switch, see the dealer push on 22, which decreases a player’s expected return in the game by nearly 7%. Here are just a few ‘good’ blackjack rules players should look out for:

  • Double down after splitting pairs
  • Re-split aces
  • Players can join a game mid-shoe

Discover which games of 21 offer players the best terms with our blackjack rules guide.

The type of blackjack game you play can heavily influence your odds of winning at 21. Some games, like Blackjack Switch, see the dealer push on 22, which decreases a player’s expected return in the game by nearly 7%. Here are just a few ‘good’ blackjack rules players should look out for:

  • Double down after splitting pairs
  • Re-split aces
  • Players can join a game mid-shoe

Discover which games of 21 offer players the best terms with our blackjack rules guide.

Is Counting Cards Illegal in the US?

Card counting is not illegal in any local, state, or federal laws in the US. If a player receives assistance counting cards from a device or another player though, then this is illegal. Casinos are also private establishments and reserve the right to ban card counters they believe are winning too much money from the table.

Card counting is not illegal in any local, state, or federal laws in the US. If a player receives assistance counting cards from a device or another player though, then this is illegal. Casinos are also private establishments and reserve the right to ban card counters they believe are winning too much money from the table.

Blackjack Card Counting Myths

Hollywood hits like 21 and Rain Man may have popularized card counting, but they’ve also spread several myths about this casino game strategy. Find out whether there is a grain of truth to the most popular card counting theories spread by casual and experienced players alike:

  1. Card counting requires a mathematical brain for memorizing cards – FALSE. Card counting systems like Hi-lo require you to keep a basic tally in your head. With some practice, many card counters can keep score while simultaneously chatting to other players.

  2. You are due a win – FALSE. Each hand is independent of one another in card counting. Players are never ‘owed’ a win from the cards. If you’re making risky decisions based on how much money you’ve lost, you’re tilting and should leave the table.

  3. Players can ‘get rich quick’ counting cards in blackjack – FALSE. Card counting requires dedication and energy to master, not to mention knowledge of casinos’ tricks to discourage this strategy. Players can also spend hours counting cards before they have an advantage.

  4. Other players’ mistakes will cause you to lose – SOMETIMES. Sure, there are times new players ignore basic strategy and make moves that give the dealer the better hand. It’s been mathematically proven that the opposite happens equally often. There’s no evidence that errors from other players affect your long-term outcome, so shake it off and focus on your next hand.

  5. Card counters never lose – FALSE. Variance in blackjack means card counters lose often. Skilled card counters though understand how expected variance works and bet strategically when they have the advantage in blackjack. Hollywood hits like 21 and Rain Man may have popularized card counting, but they’ve also spread several myths about this casino game strategy. Find out whether there is a grain of truth to the most popular card counting theories spread by casual and experienced players alike:

  6. Card counting requires a mathematical brain for memorizing cards – FALSE. Card counting systems like Hi-lo require you to keep a basic tally in your head. With some practice, many card counters can keep score while simultaneously chatting to other players.

  7. You are due a win – FALSE. Each hand is independent of one another in card counting. Players are never ‘owed’ a win from the cards. If you’re making risky decisions based on how much money you’ve lost, you’re tilting and should leave the table.

  8. Players can ‘get rich quick’ counting cards in blackjack – FALSE. Card counting requires dedication and energy to master, not to mention knowledge of casinos’ tricks to discourage this strategy. Players can also spend hours counting cards before they have an advantage.

  9. Other players’ mistakes will cause you to lose – SOMETIMES. Sure, there are times new players ignore basic strategy and make moves that give the dealer the better hand. It’s been mathematically proven that the opposite happens equally often. There’s no evidence that errors from other players affect your long-term outcome, so shake it off and focus on your next hand.

  10. Card counters never lose – FALSE. Variance in blackjack means card counters lose often. Skilled card counters though understand how expected variance works and bet strategically when they have the advantage in blackjack.

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Can you make a living counting cards in blackjack?

Earning a living card-counting is possible but it requires time, unwavering bankroll management, hefty capital, solid card counting skills, and perfect blackjack strategy. These are essential for balancing out the casino’s edge. Even then, a player’s profit percentage in blackjack hovers at 1-2%. Take expected variance into account, and players will need a bankroll worth between $20-50,000 so they can spend hours riding out any negative variance and win enough money that qualifies as a living wage.

When should I bet when counting cards?

Card counters follow several betting patterns in blackjack. When the running ‘count’ of the cards is high players generally increase their bets and vice versa. Players counting cards will also make larger bets when the dealer nears the end of the shoe. Some card counters will also make side bets that conflict with basic strategy, such as taking insurance bet. These betting deviations occur when card counting indicates the odds are not following basic strategy mathematics.

Can you win blackjack without counting cards?

There are several advantage-play strategies players can use to win at blackjack without card counting. Popular methods include ace sequencing, edge sorting, shuffle tracking, and hole carding. These strategies can give players a better advantage than card counting, but they require specific conditions and only qualify for specific blackjack games. Not only that, but they also require more practice to master than card counting. See Mr Blackjack’s video on how to win blackjack without card counting for more tips and advice.

Is it difficult learning to count cards in blackjack?

All card counting systems take time and practice to learn, but some are more complex than others. The Hi-Lo system is the simplest version, and many players find it the easiest to learn. Wong Halves is widely considered the hardest card counting system to memorize due to its complexity. See our video on how to learn card counting faster for more tips and advice.

Earning a living card-counting is possible but it requires time, unwavering bankroll management, hefty capital, solid card counting skills, and perfect blackjack strategy. These are essential for balancing out the casino’s edge. Even then, a player’s profit percentage in blackjack hovers at 1-2%. Take expected variance into account, and players will need a bankroll worth between $20-50,000 so they can spend hours riding out any negative variance and win enough money that qualifies as a living wage.

Card counters follow several betting patterns in blackjack. When the running ‘count’ of the cards is high players generally increase their bets and vice versa. Players counting cards will also make larger bets when the dealer nears the end of the shoe. Some card counters will also make side bets that conflict with basic strategy, such as taking insurance bet. These betting deviations occur when card counting indicates the odds are not following basic strategy mathematics.

There are several advantage-play strategies players can use to win at blackjack without card counting. Popular methods include ace sequencing, edge sorting, shuffle tracking, and hole carding. These strategies can give players a better advantage than card counting, but they require specific conditions and only qualify for specific blackjack games. Not only that, but they also require more practice to master than card counting. See Mr Blackjack’s video on how to win blackjack without card counting for more tips and advice.

All card counting systems take time and practice to learn, but some are more complex than others. The Hi-Lo system is the simplest version, and many players find it the easiest to learn. Wong Halves is widely considered the hardest card counting system to memorize due to its complexity. See our video on how to learn card counting faster for more tips and advice.

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The Easy OPP Count: A New Approach to Card Counting - Gambling With An Edge

September 11, 2022Leave a Comment Written by Arnold Snyder The OPP Card Counting System: A New, Easier Approach to Counting Cards By Carlos ZilzerFrom Blackjack Forum Vol. XXV #1, Winter 2005/06© 2005 Blackjack Forum Introduction by Arnold SnyderMany blackjack players find even the simplest of the traditional card counting systems too cumbersome to use comfortably in casinos. I think the Red Seven Count is about as easy a counting system as has ever been developed up to now, but it’s not the answer for everyone. Many players simply don’t play in casinos often enough to maintain their counting skills, and do not have the time to practice sufficiently for their occasional casino trips. Carlos Zilzer has developed a unique method of counting cards that is even simpler than the Red Seven Count. In fact, he tells me he has taught a few of his friends to use his “OPP Count” and they mastered it in a matter of hours. When I first read his method, I didn’t doubt that an amateur could learn it very quickly, but it wasn’t clear to me whether it would have much value in comparison with more traditional counting systems where we always weigh the high cards versus the low cards as cards are dealt. Because there was no commercially available blackjack simulation software on the market that could handle the new method Carlos had devised for counting cards, he wrote his own program and begun testing his system on a simulator of his own device. But when he discovered ET Fan’s PowerSim software, he realized that it was much faster and more versatile than his own program, so he began running more extensive simulation tests with PowerSim. When he discovered that PowerSim was producing results comparable to his own software program, he submitted an article to Blackjack Forum describing his system and the simulation results. The OPP Count is such a radical simplification of traditional card counting methods that I wanted to see more data before publishing the system. I asked Carlos to run more extensive tests not only of his system as described in the initial article that he submitted, but of numerous variations of the system, along with simulations of the Hi-Lo Count in the same games for comparison with his method. I also requested that he set counters on his simulations so that I could see that cards were being dealt accurately and randomly. Carlos spent weeks running the simulation tests I requested and sending me spreadsheets with printouts of his results. He then compiled some of the most important data from these tests into a new Blackjack Forum article describing his system, its development, and the results of his simulations. I am proud to publish Carlos Zilzer’s OPP Count as one of the first truly new methods of counting cards to be developed in many years—a method that is surprisingly strong for its incredible simplicity of use, and the ease with which most players could learn it. — A. S. The Easy OPP Count System Part 1: The Basic Idea Behind Card CountingThe whole idea behind card counting is to determine how rich or poor the shoe is at any time with cards favorable to the player or the dealer. A shoe rich in high cards (tens and aces) is favorable to the player, while a shoe rich in low cards (2s through 6s) is favorable to the house. All modern card counting systems that I am aware of assign a negative value to the high cards and a positive value to low cards. The main difference between the systems is the value assigned to the different cards. As an example, the popular Hi-Lo system assigns the value -1 to the tens and aces and the value +1 to the low cards, 2s through 6s. As the cards come out of the shoe, players add the values of those cards to obtain what is called a running count, which can be a positive or negative number depending on the proportion of low to high cards dealt from the shoe. With balanced counts, before making a betting or playing decision, the player divides the running count by the number of decks that have not yet been dealt to obtain what is called the true count. Counting this way is not easy, as the player needs to pay attention to the cards while they are being dealt and then must make mental calculations. There are easier counting systems that eliminate the calculation of the true count by assigning positive values to more cards than those with negative values. For example, the Red Seven Count developed by Arnold Snyder has the same card values as the balanced Hi-Lo Count, but assigns a value of +1 to the red sevens, creating an imbalance of +2 per deck. The goal of a good card-counting system is to be as simple to use as possible without losing the power to accurately determine when the player has the advantage. The OPP count does exactly that: It is a very simple method to learn and use that will give you results comparable to the Hi Lo Count. It is a running count system requiring no math at the tables, and it’s even easier to use than the Red Seven. The main difference between this new counting system and all of the traditional ones is that it uses new factors to determine the composition of the remaining decks. It is the easiest way to count cards with a high degree of betting accuracy. Part 2: The Mathematical Coincidence In a deck of 52 cards there are 20 high cards (tens, faces and aces). There are also 20 low cards (2s through 6s). Since 52 / 20 = 2.6, if you shuffle a deck and start dealing cards you will see one high card every two or three cards–or every 2.6 cards on average–and you will also see one low card with the same frequency. It has also been determined with computer simulations that each player or dealer hand will receive an average number of cards very close to 2.6 cards in blackjack games with the European no-hole-card rule. (The actual number determined after the simulation of billions of hands using different simulators is 2.63.) With standard US rules, in which the dealer hand receives a hole card, the average number of cards per hand, including the dealer’s hand, is closer to 2.7. Now we have something very interesting: Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card. With the help of computer simulation (see my results below), it has been shown that any player or dealer hand will actually receive an average of about 1.02 low cards and 1.02 high cards per hand (with US rules where the dealer takes a hole card). In the table below, you will find the results of a 100 million hand simulation using PowerSim for a 6-deck game. Results of the simulations counting high cards per hand Total dealt cards: Total dealt hands: Total high cards: Average total cards/hand: Average high cards/hand: Results of the simulations counting low cards per hand Total dealt cards: Total dealt hands: Total low cards: Average total: cards/hand: Average low cards/hand: This data is the basis of the OPP counting system. OPP stands for One Per Person. As I will explain, the number of low or high cards per hand will give a very good indication of the composition of the remaining decks. Part 3: Developing and Testing the Easy OPP Card Counting System I first tested counting the number of high cards that were dealt per round and comparing this number with the total number of hands dealt per round. Imagine a blackjack table with three players and the dealer dealing the first round of the shoe. These are the first round hands: Player 1 Ace, 10 — Blackjack Player 2 10, 2, 7 — 19 Player 3 8, 6, 10 — (bust) Dealer 10, 3, 6 — 19 As you can see there were 4 hands played and 5 high cards were dealt (an ace and 10 to Player 1, a ten to Player 2, a ten to Player 3, and a ten to the Dealer). The OPP count was obtained by subtracting the total number of high cards dealt from number of hands played, in this case, 4 – 5 = -1, for an OPP running count of -1. The next round the hands dealt were: Player 1 10, 5, 5 — 20 Player 2 Ace, 2, 5 — 18 Player 3 8, 6, 7— 21 Dealer 9, 5, 3 — 17 At this time there were again 4 hands played, but only 2 high cards were dealt. Thus, the count for this round will be 4 – 2 = 2. The new running count is now -1 + 2 = +1 (The -1 is the running count from the previous round.) This process continues until the end of the shoe, adding the running count of each round to the cumulative running count of the prior rounds. None of the commercially available blackjack simulation programs could be adapted to test this new counting system, so it was necessary to develop a simulator for this job specifically. The first simulations I ran, using my own simulation program, were performed in the beginning of 2005 using a program specially written for the tests. It was slow but returned the data I was looking for. With the new powerful and fast open source PowerSim simulator, available on this Web site, simulations that used to take me about two hours are now performed in eight minutes. The first step was to verify that the count was producing logical results. We would expect the count to present a normal distribution of positive and negative counts with the majority of counts around zero, and a reasonable spread of counts on both the positive and negative side. The chart showed the PowerSim results for 100 million rounds of a player using basic strategy in a six-deck game. About 80% of the hands were played with running counts between -6 and +6 and approximately 14% of the hands were played at a zero running count. But the graph showed that the count was negative more times than positive. This is not what we would expect for a traditional balanced counting system, which would tend to produce a more symmetrical pattern of counts on either side of zero. The next step, however, was to see how well the player’s advantage correlated to the count. In order to have an accurate counting system there must be a strong relation between the count and the player’s advantage. This was the case in all negative counts, but the results at high positive counts were not well-correlated to the player’s expectation. The chart showed that the relation between the running count and the advantage was almost linear up to counts of +12, but that the relation became erratic at counts higher than +12. I tried several simulations with PowerSim and always got inconsistent results starting at counts of +12 and above. I next wanted to see what the overall player advantage would be using this counting system with a bet spread. I ran a 100 million-hand simulation using the following bet ramp: 1 unit up to count +1 and ramping up 2, 4, and 16 units respectively at counts +2, +3 and +4. The following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator: Advantage with 1-16 spread 0.3271% Average bet (units) 2.683 Although it was possible to get an edge using this method, these results were very disappointing and were not comparable to the results obtainable with a traditional card counting system. The system’s power represented less than 40% of the betting gain that could be obtained with the standard Hi Lo Count in the same game. Before dropping the idea I decided to reverse the OPP counting method. Instead of subtracting the number of high cards dealt per round from the number of hands in play, I decided to test the system subtracting the number of hands in play from the number of low cards dealt per round. Here’s how it modified the counting method: Imagine a blackjack table with three players and the dealer dealing the first round of the shoe. These are the first round hands: Player 1 Ace, 10 — Blackjack Player 2 10, 2, 7 — 19 Player 3 8, 6, 10 — (bust) Dealer 7, 7, 5 — 19 As you can see there were 4 hands played and only 3 low cards were dealt (a 2 to Player 2, a 6 to Player 3, and a 5 to the Dealer). The OPP count is obtained by subtracting the total number of hands played from the number of low cards dealt, in this case, 3 – 4 = -1, and that is the OPP running count. The next round the hands dealt were: Player 1 10, 5, 5 — 20 Player 2 Ace, 2, 4, 10 — 17 Player 3 8, 6, 7 — 21 Dealer 10, 4, 3 — 17 At this time there were also 4 hands played but 7 low cards were dealt. The count for this round will be 7 – 4 = +3. The new running count is now -1 + 3 = +2 (The -1 is the running count from the previous round.) This process continues until the end of the shoe, adding the running count of each round to the cumulative running count of the prior rounds. So I reversed the OPP counting method in this way, comparing the number of low cards dealt to the number of hands in play. We again have a normal distribution of the counts with more than 80% of the counts occurring in the range from -6 to +6. But this time the count distribution is more positive than negative. This graph showed that there was a much more linear relation between the running count and the player expectation. The unpredictable results obtained at high counts when using the OPP method to compare high cards to hands dealt do not occur when we compare low cards to hands dealt. With this OPP counting method, the player starts to have an edge over the house when the running count reaches +5. I then ran a simulation applying a bet ramp of 1 unit up to a count of +5, and ramping up to 2, 4, and 16 units at counts of +6, +7, and +8 respectively. The following results compare the OPP with the Hi Lo Count with a similar 1-to-16 bet ramp. (Both systems were tested using basic strategy only.) OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.6359% 0.7723% Average bet (in units) 2.907 2.547 As shown in the table above, the new system has a betting power equivalent to 82+% of the standard Hi Lo system, but with far greater ease of use. A new and very simple count system has been born: the OPP Count system. The player counts only the number of low cards dealt per round and compares this with the number of hands played in the round. Mathematical Considerations Many players may wonder why counting the high cards versus hands dealt was less efficient than counting the low cards versus hands dealt. That is because the OPP method does not really have us comparing low cards with high cards as with a traditional card counting system. Instead, we are comparing low cards or high cards with something that has a frequency distribution of its own—that is, the number of cards per hand. We know that the overall average number of cards per hand is 2.7, but that the number of cards per hand will also vary with the count. It is logical that the number of cards per hand will be higher when the count is rising because more cards will be required to complete the hands when extra low cards are being dealt. Consider what happens when counting high cards per hand if we have a hand with 3 or 4 low cards, then hit with a high card and bust. Because this hand contains only one high card, it is counted as “zero,” since there is no discrepancy from the normal number of high cards (one) that should occur per hand. If we were counting the low cards, this hand will accurately reflect the fact that the count has gone up in the player’s favor, since more than one low card has been dealt to it. It is less probable to have a hand with 3 or 4 high cards in it, because such a hand would require either a soft or stiff hand to start with that we hit with multiple aces. Multiple-high-card hands would be rare, while multiple-low-card hands would occur more frequently, and produce a more accurate measure of advantage. Analyses of Two-deck and Eight-deck Blackjack Games In order to configure a system usable in most situations, I performed simulations with PowerSim to determine the effectiveness of the OPP count in games with two decks and eight decks, again comparing the betting gain with the gain from Hi-Lo. Two DecksApplying a bet ramp with a spread of 1 unit up to a count of +1 and ramping up 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 units respectively at counts of +2, +3, +4, +5 and +6, the following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator (again, with both systems playing basic strategy only): Two deck performance OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.8218% 1.0073% Average bet (in units) 2.097 1.875 The power of the OPP count is again about 82% of the standard Hi Lo with no index play. Eight DecksApplying a bet ramp with a spread of 1 unit up to count +7 and ramping up 2, 4 and 16 units respectively at counts +8, +9 and +10, the following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator (again with both the OPP and Hi-Lo playing basic strategy only): Eight deck performance OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.4416% 0.5772% Average bet 2.691 2.249 The betting power of the OPP count is shown to be about 77% of the standard Hi Lo in the eight-deck game. Testing Alternative Counting StrategiesI also tested alternatives for the OPP system, including: Count only tens Count nine and tens Consider 3 to 7 as low cards Consider 3, 4, 5 and 6 as low cards Consider 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 as low cards Playing Indexes for the Easy OPP Card Counting SystemThe only playing index tested so far for the OPP count is the insurance index, which adds an additional 0.009% edge to all games tested (2, 6 and 8 decks) The running count insurance index for a 6-deck game is +12. For a 2-deck game the index is +5, and for an 8-deck game the index is +14. Snyder comments: It is not intuitive that the insurance gain from a 2-deck game with 75% penetration would be the same as the insurance gain from an 8-deck game with 75% penetration, as this would not be the case with a traditional card counting system. The OPP Count, however, does not correlate well with the insurance effects of removal since ten-valued cards are not actually counted. I suspect that OPP running count indices for some of the more important strategy decisions, however, especially standing on 15 or 16 v. Ten, will be found by Carlos and others through continued simulation tests, as the counting method will probably correlate very well with these decisions. THE OPP COUNT Basic StrategyBefore learning any count system it is a must to master basic strategy . The use of basic strategy will provide the player with the minimum advantage for the house. The counting system will turn that small house advantage into a small advantage for the player. Not using basic strategy may give the house such a large edge that no counting system will be able to turn the advantage to the player’s side. OPP RulesValue of the Hands: A hand with no low cards (2 – 6) has a value of -1 A hand with one low card has a value of 0 A hand with 2 low cards has a value of +1 A hand with 3 low cards has a value of +2 and so on Split hands are considered new hands This value is independent of the total number of cards in the hand. For example: Ace, Ace, 2, 2, 10, 3 has an OPP value of +2 2, 3, 5, 3, 6 has an OPP value of + 4 7, 7, 7 has an OPP value of -1 Ace, 10 has an OPP value of -1 6, 7, 8 has an OPP value of 0 9, 8 has an OPP value of -1 10, 6, Ace has an OPP value of 0 Counting the Cards It is very easy to mentally count up or down in positive numbers. Considering that 80% of the hands will be in the range of -6 to +6, I recommend starting the running count for the OPP system at +6 at the beginning of a shoe. In this way, the count will very seldom reach negative numbers. Wait for the dealer to deal the first two cards to each player, as well as the two dealer cards (upcard and hole card, if dealt). You can speak, make jokes, and drink your soft drink. You don’t have to count anything while the cards are being dealt. If someone gets a blackjack and the dealer pays him and places his cards in the discard try, subtract one from your running count. Then check the hand of each player as they are making their playing decisions. Beginning of the shoe: Running count +6 Player 4 Ace, 10 (blackjack) Running count +5 dealer took the cards to the discard try Player 1 Ace, Ace, 2, 2, 10, 3 Running count +7 Player 2 2, 3, 5, 3, 6 Running count +11 Player 3 7, 7, 7 Running count +10 Player 5 6, 7, 8 Running count +10 Player 6 9, 8 Running count +9 Dealer 10, 6, Ace Running count +9 If any player happens to split hands, they should be considered new hands and the value of the original hand should be ignored. The best way to practice the system is to play blackjack at home. Use a deck and start dealing cards to three imaginary players and to yourself as the dealer. Practice the count as indicated above while you play each hand. In this way you will see and practice counting all possible hands that can appear in real life games. You will learn to count spilt hands and to count very fast while the dealer is collecting the cards after a dealer blackjack. Snyder comments: My method of counting with the OPP system is a bit different. Before the hands are dealt, I immediately subtract the number of hands in play. So, if I use Carlos’s suggestion to start counting at +6, with three players at the table each playing one hand, I make my count +2 before any cards are dealt (subtracting one for each player hand and the dealer’s hand). Then, as each player plays his hand, I simply add the total number of low cards in it. When the next round starts, again assuming three player hands are being dealt, I’ll immediately deduct 4 from the current running count, and repeat as above. One of the best features of the OPP Count is that it makes back-counting and table-hopping a breeze. You can approach a table and quickly scan for the total number of low cards on the layout, then subtract the number of hands that were in play after you get your low-card count. You will see that the OPP is very easy to learn and to master. When you feel proficient counting the cards at home, you can practice in an Internet casino playing for fun money at a table with multiple players. Be aware that the count won’t mean anything in an Internet casino where the online software shuffles after every round. You will only use these games as a practice method. After you have practiced enough at home, go to a casino and start counting while other people play. When you feel comfortable sit at a table and start playing using the OPP count. You will see that you will get used to the system very fast, and that it really does not require 100% concentration except when each player is making his playing decisions. The only moment you will need to count quickly is when the dealer has a blackjack, as he will collect the cards of all the players’ hands very quickly. Betting to WinOnce you have learned this very simple counting method the only thing you need to do is wait for the right moment to increase your bet. If you have started at a running count of +6, wait until the count reaches +12 for a six-deck game, +14 for an eight-deck game, or +8 for a two-deck game. At these counts the advantage has shifted to the players. The higher the count value, the higher the player edge, and the bigger your bet should be. We call this point where the advantage turns to the player’s side the “pivot.” Be very patient. Only about 18% of your hands will be played at counts over the pivot in shoe games, and the player advantage will not occur in all shoes. It is possible that you won’t have an advantage for several shoes, or even all night. Also remember that there is no warranty that you will win most of your hands when the count reaches the pivot. There is always “variance” in gambling results (you may call it luck). Remember that there will be many times when you will lose high bet hands. The following table shows the recommended bet ramps for games with two, six, and eight decks, to get the best advantage for the player at the minimum risk. The first three columns are the running counts where you raise your bet, according to the number of decks in the game. The fourth column is the recommended bet in “betting units.” And the fifth and sixth columns show the bet in dollars for $5 or $10 units. For example, if you are sitting at a $5 minimum six-deck table, you may set your bet unit to $5, and if the count reaches +12 you bet 2 times your betting unit, or $10. If the count reaches +14, you will bet 16 times your betting unit, or $80. Running count8 deck Running count 6 deck Running count 2 deck Unitsto bet $5 table $10 table Less than +14 Less than +12 Less than +8 1 $5 $10 +14 +12 +8 2 $10 $20 +15 +13 +9 4 $20 $40 +16 +14 +10 16 $80 $160 +17 or more +15 or more +11 or more 16 $80 $160 If the count reaches values of zero or less during two consecutive rounds in the shoe it is recommended to stop playing until the beginning of the next shoe. This will save you a lot of money. Snyder comments: I will point out here that Carlos is playing primarily in South American casinos where card counters are uncommon and camouflage is not a big necessity. Players in the US or elsewhere must always bear in mind the heat factor. His two-deck betting strategy would likely get you booted out fairly quickly in many US casinos. For playing shoe games in the US, a back-counting strategy would likely be more advisable (and more profitable) than a 1-16 spread. To back-count is to watch the cards being dealt on a table without playing, ready to jump in and play when the count goes up and you will be starting play with an advantage. Table-hopping is an extension of back-counting that pros use in big casinos, which tend to have multiple pits with many blackjack tables. Table-hoppers leave the game when the count goes negative and start play at another table. They refuse to play when the casino has a big edge. The Insurance BetBasic strategy recommends not taking insurance, but card counting sometimes indicates an insurance advantage for the card counter. With the OPP Count, if we start our count at +6 at the beginning of the shoe, the insurance index is +18 for the six-deck game, +20 for the eight-deck game, and +11 for the two-deck game. This means that if you are playing in a six-deck game and the running count reaches +18 or more, and the dealer has an Ace up, you should place the insurance bet, because you will win the bet more than 35 % of the time. Simulations with PowerSim have confirmed these index numbers. Final Thoughts on the Easy OPP Card Counting System OPP is a very simple system to learn and to use. Practice at home, go to a casino and stand near a table and practice the count while others play. I know people who have mastered the system in less than a weekend and now they are part of the select group of players who are making money playing blackjack. ♠ Note: Although hundreds of independent researchers and mathematicians have proven that card counting is a winning strategy over the long run, gambling is always risky. Anything can happen in the short run. No one can ever guarantee that you will win even when you are playing with an advantage. Never gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. By Carlos ZilzerFrom Blackjack Forum Vol. XXV #1, Winter 2005/06© 2005 Blackjack Forum Introduction by Arnold Snyder Many blackjack players find even the simplest of the traditional card counting systems too cumbersome to use comfortably in casinos. I think the Red Seven Count is about as easy a counting system as has ever been developed up to now, but it’s not the answer for everyone. Many players simply don’t play in casinos often enough to maintain their counting skills, and do not have the time to practice sufficiently for their occasional casino trips. Carlos Zilzer has developed a unique method of counting cards that is even simpler than the Red Seven Count. In fact, he tells me he has taught a few of his friends to use his “OPP Count” and they mastered it in a matter of hours. When I first read his method, I didn’t doubt that an amateur could learn it very quickly, but it wasn’t clear to me whether it would have much value in comparison with more traditional counting systems where we always weigh the high cards versus the low cards as cards are dealt. Because there was no commercially available blackjack simulation software on the market that could handle the new method Carlos had devised for counting cards, he wrote his own program and begun testing his system on a simulator of his own device. But when he discovered ET Fan’s PowerSim software, he realized that it was much faster and more versatile than his own program, so he began running more extensive simulation tests with PowerSim. When he discovered that PowerSim was producing results comparable to his own software program, he submitted an article to Blackjack Forum describing his system and the simulation results. The OPP Count is such a radical simplification of traditional card counting methods that I wanted to see more data before publishing the system. I asked Carlos to run more extensive tests not only of his system as described in the initial article that he submitted, but of numerous variations of the system, along with simulations of the Hi-Lo Count in the same games for comparison with his method. I also requested that he set counters on his simulations so that I could see that cards were being dealt accurately and randomly. Carlos spent weeks running the simulation tests I requested and sending me spreadsheets with printouts of his results. He then compiled some of the most important data from these tests into a new Blackjack Forum article describing his system, its development, and the results of his simulations. I am proud to publish Carlos Zilzer’s OPP Count as one of the first truly new methods of counting cards to be developed in many years—a method that is surprisingly strong for its incredible simplicity of use, and the ease with which most players could learn it. — A. S. The Easy OPP Count System Part 1: The Basic Idea Behind Card Counting The whole idea behind card counting is to determine how rich or poor the shoe is at any time with cards favorable to the player or the dealer. A shoe rich in high cards (tens and aces) is favorable to the player, while a shoe rich in low cards (2s through 6s) is favorable to the house. All modern card counting systems that I am aware of assign a negative value to the high cards and a positive value to low cards. The main difference between the systems is the value assigned to the different cards. As an example, the popular Hi-Lo system assigns the value -1 to the tens and aces and the value +1 to the low cards, 2s through 6s. As the cards come out of the shoe, players add the values of those cards to obtain what is called a running count, which can be a positive or negative number depending on the proportion of low to high cards dealt from the shoe. With balanced counts, before making a betting or playing decision, the player divides the running count by the number of decks that have not yet been dealt to obtain what is called the true count. Counting this way is not easy, as the player needs to pay attention to the cards while they are being dealt and then must make mental calculations. There are easier counting systems that eliminate the calculation of the true count by assigning positive values to more cards than those with negative values. For example, the Red Seven Count developed by Arnold Snyder has the same card values as the balanced Hi-Lo Count, but assigns a value of +1 to the red sevens, creating an imbalance of +2 per deck. The goal of a good card-counting system is to be as simple to use as possible without losing the power to accurately determine when the player has the advantage. The OPP count does exactly that: It is a very simple method to learn and use that will give you results comparable to the Hi Lo Count. It is a running count system requiring no math at the tables, and it’s even easier to use than the Red Seven. The main difference between this new counting system and all of the traditional ones is that it uses new factors to determine the composition of the remaining decks. It is the easiest way to count cards with a high degree of betting accuracy. Part 2: The Mathematical Coincidence In a deck of 52 cards there are 20 high cards (tens, faces and aces). There are also 20 low cards (2s through 6s). Since 52 / 20 = 2.6, if you shuffle a deck and start dealing cards you will see one high card every two or three cards–or every 2.6 cards on average–and you will also see one low card with the same frequency. It has also been determined with computer simulations that each player or dealer hand will receive an average number of cards very close to 2.6 cards in blackjack games with the European no-hole-card rule. (The actual number determined after the simulation of billions of hands using different simulators is 2.63.) With standard US rules, in which the dealer hand receives a hole card, the average number of cards per hand, including the dealer’s hand, is closer to 2.7. Now we have something very interesting: Since the average blackjack hand contains 2.6 to 2.7 cards, and the proportion of low cards in a deck (and high cards in a deck) is exactly 1 out of every 2.6 cards, then it follows that the average player or dealer hand can be expected to receive one high card and one low card. With the help of computer simulation (see my results below), it has been shown that any player or dealer hand will actually receive an average of about 1.02 low cards and 1.02 high cards per hand (with US rules where the dealer takes a hole card). In the table below, you will find the results of a 100 million hand simulation using PowerSim for a 6-deck game. Results of the simulations counting high cards per hand Total dealt cards: Total dealt hands: Total high cards: Average total cards/hand: Average high cards/hand: Results of the simulations counting low cards per hand Total dealt cards: Total dealt hands: Total low cards: Average total: cards/hand: Average low cards/hand: This data is the basis of the OPP counting system. OPP stands for One Per Person. As I will explain, the number of low or high cards per hand will give a very good indication of the composition of the remaining decks. Part 3: Developing and Testing the Easy OPP Card Counting System I first tested counting the number of high cards that were dealt per round and comparing this number with the total number of hands dealt per round. Imagine a blackjack table with three players and the dealer dealing the first round of the shoe. These are the first round hands: Player 1 Ace, 10 — Blackjack Player 2 10, 2, 7 — 19 Player 3 8, 6, 10 — (bust) Dealer 10, 3, 6 — 19 As you can see there were 4 hands played and 5 high cards were dealt (an ace and 10 to Player 1, a ten to Player 2, a ten to Player 3, and a ten to the Dealer). The OPP count was obtained by subtracting the total number of high cards dealt from number of hands played, in this case, 4 – 5 = -1, for an OPP running count of -1. The next round the hands dealt were: Player 1 10, 5, 5 — 20 Player 2 Ace, 2, 5 — 18 Player 3 8, 6, 7— 21 Dealer 9, 5, 3 — 17 At this time there were again 4 hands played, but only 2 high cards were dealt. Thus, the count for this round will be 4 – 2 = 2. The new running count is now -1 + 2 = +1 (The -1 is the running count from the previous round.) This process continues until the end of the shoe, adding the running count of each round to the cumulative running count of the prior rounds. None of the commercially available blackjack simulation programs could be adapted to test this new counting system, so it was necessary to develop a simulator for this job specifically. The first simulations I ran, using my own simulation program, were performed in the beginning of 2005 using a program specially written for the tests. It was slow but returned the data I was looking for. With the new powerful and fast open source PowerSim simulator, available on this Web site, simulations that used to take me about two hours are now performed in eight minutes. The first step was to verify that the count was producing logical results. We would expect the count to present a normal distribution of positive and negative counts with the majority of counts around zero, and a reasonable spread of counts on both the positive and negative side. The chart showed the PowerSim results for 100 million rounds of a player using basic strategy in a six-deck game. About 80% of the hands were played with running counts between -6 and +6 and approximately 14% of the hands were played at a zero running count. But the graph showed that the count was negative more times than positive. This is not what we would expect for a traditional balanced counting system, which would tend to produce a more symmetrical pattern of counts on either side of zero. The next step, however, was to see how well the player’s advantage correlated to the count. In order to have an accurate counting system there must be a strong relation between the count and the player’s advantage. This was the case in all negative counts, but the results at high positive counts were not well-correlated to the player’s expectation. The chart showed that the relation between the running count and the advantage was almost linear up to counts of +12, but that the relation became erratic at counts higher than +12. I tried several simulations with PowerSim and always got inconsistent results starting at counts of +12 and above. I next wanted to see what the overall player advantage would be using this counting system with a bet spread. I ran a 100 million-hand simulation using the following bet ramp: 1 unit up to count +1 and ramping up 2, 4, and 16 units respectively at counts +2, +3 and +4. The following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator: Advantage with 1-16 spread 0.3271% Average bet (units) 2.683 Although it was possible to get an edge using this method, these results were very disappointing and were not comparable to the results obtainable with a traditional card counting system. The system’s power represented less than 40% of the betting gain that could be obtained with the standard Hi Lo Count in the same game. Before dropping the idea I decided to reverse the OPP counting method. Instead of subtracting the number of high cards dealt per round from the number of hands in play, I decided to test the system subtracting the number of hands in play from the number of low cards dealt per round. Here’s how it modified the counting method: Imagine a blackjack table with three players and the dealer dealing the first round of the shoe. These are the first round hands: Player 1 Ace, 10 — Blackjack Player 2 10, 2, 7 — 19 Player 3 8, 6, 10 — (bust) Dealer 7, 7, 5 — 19 As you can see there were 4 hands played and only 3 low cards were dealt (a 2 to Player 2, a 6 to Player 3, and a 5 to the Dealer). The OPP count is obtained by subtracting the total number of hands played from the number of low cards dealt, in this case, 3 – 4 = -1, and that is the OPP running count. The next round the hands dealt were: Player 1 10, 5, 5 — 20 Player 2 Ace, 2, 4, 10 — 17 Player 3 8, 6, 7 — 21 Dealer 10, 4, 3 — 17 At this time there were also 4 hands played but 7 low cards were dealt. The count for this round will be 7 – 4 = +3. The new running count is now -1 + 3 = +2 (The -1 is the running count from the previous round.) This process continues until the end of the shoe, adding the running count of each round to the cumulative running count of the prior rounds. So I reversed the OPP counting method in this way, comparing the number of low cards dealt to the number of hands in play. We again have a normal distribution of the counts with more than 80% of the counts occurring in the range from -6 to +6. But this time the count distribution is more positive than negative. This graph showed that there was a much more linear relation between the running count and the player expectation. The unpredictable results obtained at high counts when using the OPP method to compare high cards to hands dealt do not occur when we compare low cards to hands dealt. With this OPP counting method, the player starts to have an edge over the house when the running count reaches +5. I then ran a simulation applying a bet ramp of 1 unit up to a count of +5, and ramping up to 2, 4, and 16 units at counts of +6, +7, and +8 respectively. The following results compare the OPP with the Hi Lo Count with a similar 1-to-16 bet ramp. (Both systems were tested using basic strategy only.) OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.6359% 0.7723% Average bet (in units) 2.907 2.547 As shown in the table above, the new system has a betting power equivalent to 82+% of the standard Hi Lo system, but with far greater ease of use. A new and very simple count system has been born: the OPP Count system. The player counts only the number of low cards dealt per round and compares this with the number of hands played in the round. Mathematical Considerations Many players may wonder why counting the high cards versus hands dealt was less efficient than counting the low cards versus hands dealt. That is because the OPP method does not really have us comparing low cards with high cards as with a traditional card counting system. Instead, we are comparing low cards or high cards with something that has a frequency distribution of its own—that is, the number of cards per hand. We know that the overall average number of cards per hand is 2.7, but that the number of cards per hand will also vary with the count. It is logical that the number of cards per hand will be higher when the count is rising because more cards will be required to complete the hands when extra low cards are being dealt. Consider what happens when counting high cards per hand if we have a hand with 3 or 4 low cards, then hit with a high card and bust. Because this hand contains only one high card, it is counted as “zero,” since there is no discrepancy from the normal number of high cards (one) that should occur per hand. If we were counting the low cards, this hand will accurately reflect the fact that the count has gone up in the player’s favor, since more than one low card has been dealt to it. It is less probable to have a hand with 3 or 4 high cards in it, because such a hand would require either a soft or stiff hand to start with that we hit with multiple aces. Multiple-high-card hands would be rare, while multiple-low-card hands would occur more frequently, and produce a more accurate measure of advantage. Analyses of Two-deck and Eight-deck Blackjack Games In order to configure a system usable in most situations, I performed simulations with PowerSim to determine the effectiveness of the OPP count in games with two decks and eight decks, again comparing the betting gain with the gain from Hi-Lo. Two Decks Applying a bet ramp with a spread of 1 unit up to a count of +1 and ramping up 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 units respectively at counts of +2, +3, +4, +5 and +6, the following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator (again, with both systems playing basic strategy only): Two deck performance OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.8218% 1.0073% Average bet (in units) 2.097 1.875 The power of the OPP count is again about 82% of the standard Hi Lo with no index play. Eight Decks Applying a bet ramp with a spread of 1 unit up to count +7 and ramping up 2, 4 and 16 units respectively at counts +8, +9 and +10, the following results were obtained using the PowerSim simulator (again with both the OPP and Hi-Lo playing basic strategy only): Eight deck performance OPP Hi Lo Player edge with bet ramp 0.4416% 0.5772% Average bet 2.691 2.249 The betting power of the OPP count is shown to be about 77% of the standard Hi Lo in the eight-deck game. Testing Alternative Counting Strategies I also tested alternatives for the OPP system, including: Count only tens Count nine and tens Consider 3 to 7 as low cards Consider 3, 4, 5 and 6 as low cards Consider 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 as low cards Playing Indexes for the Easy OPP Card Counting System The only playing index tested so far for the OPP count is the insurance index, which adds an additional 0.009% edge to all games tested (2, 6 and 8 decks) The running count insurance index for a 6-deck game is +12. For a 2-deck game the index is +5, and for an 8-deck game the index is +14. Snyder comments: It is not intuitive that the insurance gain from a 2-deck game with 75% penetration would be the same as the insurance gain from an 8-deck game with 75% penetration, as this would not be the case with a traditional card counting system. The OPP Count, however, does not correlate well with the insurance effects of removal since ten-valued cards are not actually counted. I suspect that OPP running count indices for some of the more important strategy decisions, however, especially standing on 15 or 16 v. Ten, will be found by Carlos and others through continued simulation tests, as the counting method will probably correlate very well with these decisions. THE OPP COUNT Basic Strategy Before learning any count system it is a must to master basic strategy . The use of basic strategy will provide the player with the minimum advantage for the house. The counting system will turn that small house advantage into a small advantage for the player. Not using basic strategy may give the house such a large edge that no counting system will be able to turn the advantage to the player’s side. OPP Rules Value of the Hands: A hand with no low cards (2 – 6) has a value of -1 A hand with one low card has a value of 0 A hand with 2 low cards has a value of +1 A hand with 3 low cards has a value of +2 and so on Split hands are considered new hands This value is independent of the total number of cards in the hand. For example: Ace, Ace, 2, 2, 10, 3 has an OPP value of +2 2, 3, 5, 3, 6 has an OPP value of + 4 7, 7, 7 has an OPP value of -1 Ace, 10 has an OPP value of -1 6, 7, 8 has an OPP value of 0 9, 8 has an OPP value of -1 10, 6, Ace has an OPP value of 0 Counting the Cards It is very easy to mentally count up or down in positive numbers. Considering that 80% of the hands will be in the range of -6 to +6, I recommend starting the running count for the OPP system at +6 at the beginning of a shoe. In this way, the count will very seldom reach negative numbers. Wait for the dealer to deal the first two cards to each player, as well as the two dealer cards (upcard and hole card, if dealt). You can speak, make jokes, and drink your soft drink. You don’t have to count anything while the cards are being dealt. If someone gets a blackjack and the dealer pays him and places his cards in the discard try, subtract one from your running count. Then check the hand of each player as they are making their playing decisions. Beginning of the shoe: Running count +6 Player 4 Ace, 10 (blackjack) Running count +5 dealer took the cards to the discard try Player 1 Ace, Ace, 2, 2, 10, 3 Running count +7 Player 2 2, 3, 5, 3, 6 Running count +11 Player 3 7, 7, 7 Running count +10 Player 5 6, 7, 8 Running count +10 Player 6 9, 8 Running count +9 Dealer 10, 6, Ace Running count +9 If any player happens to split hands, they should be considered new hands and the value of the original hand should be ignored. The best way to practice the system is to play blackjack at home. Use a deck and start dealing cards to three imaginary players and to yourself as the dealer. Practice the count as indicated above while you play each hand. In this way you will see and practice counting all possible hands that can appear in real life games. You will learn to count spilt hands and to count very fast while the dealer is collecting the cards after a dealer blackjack. Snyder comments: My method of counting with the OPP system is a bit different. Before the hands are dealt, I immediately subtract the number of hands in play. So, if I use Carlos’s suggestion to start counting at +6, with three players at the table each playing one hand, I make my count +2 before any cards are dealt (subtracting one for each player hand and the dealer’s hand). Then, as each player plays his hand, I simply add the total number of low cards in it. When the next round starts, again assuming three player hands are being dealt, I’ll immediately deduct 4 from the current running count, and repeat as above. One of the best features of the OPP Count is that it makes back-counting and table-hopping a breeze. You can approach a table and quickly scan for the total number of low cards on the layout, then subtract the number of hands that were in play after you get your low-card count. You will see that the OPP is very easy to learn and to master. When you feel proficient counting the cards at home, you can practice in an Internet casino playing for fun money at a table with multiple players. Be aware that the count won’t mean anything in an Internet casino where the online software shuffles after every round. You will only use these games as a practice method. After you have practiced enough at home, go to a casino and start counting while other people play. When you feel comfortable sit at a table and start playing using the OPP count. You will see that you will get used to the system very fast, and that it really does not require 100% concentration except when each player is making his playing decisions. The only moment you will need to count quickly is when the dealer has a blackjack, as he will collect the cards of all the players’ hands very quickly. Betting to Win Once you have learned this very simple counting method the only thing you need to do is wait for the right moment to increase your bet. If you have started at a running count of +6, wait until the count reaches +12 for a six-deck game, +14 for an eight-deck game, or +8 for a two-deck game. At these counts the advantage has shifted to the players. The higher the count value, the higher the player edge, and the bigger your bet should be. We call this point where the advantage turns to the player’s side the “pivot.” Be very patient. Only about 18% of your hands will be played at counts over the pivot in shoe games, and the player advantage will not occur in all shoes. It is possible that you won’t have an advantage for several shoes, or even all night. Also remember that there is no warranty that you will win most of your hands when the count reaches the pivot. There is always “variance” in gambling results (you may call it luck). Remember that there will be many times when you will lose high bet hands. The following table shows the recommended bet ramps for games with two, six, and eight decks, to get the best advantage for the player at the minimum risk. The first three columns are the running counts where you raise your bet, according to the number of decks in the game. The fourth column is the recommended bet in “betting units.” And the fifth and sixth columns show the bet in dollars for $5 or $10 units. For example, if you are sitting at a $5 minimum six-deck table, you may set your bet unit to $5, and if the count reaches +12 you bet 2 times your betting unit, or $10. If the count reaches +14, you will bet 16 times your betting unit, or $80. Running count8 deck Running count 6 deck Running count 2 deck Unitsto bet $5 table $10 table Less than +14 Less than +12 Less than +8 1 $5 $10 +14 +12 +8 2 $10 $20 +15 +13 +9 4 $20 $40 +16 +14 +10 16 $80 $160 +17 or more +15 or more +11 or more 16 $80 $160 If the count reaches values of zero or less during two consecutive rounds in the shoe it is recommended to stop playing until the beginning of the next shoe. This will save you a lot of money. Snyder comments: I will point out here that Carlos is playing primarily in South American casinos where card counters are uncommon and camouflage is not a big necessity. Players in the US or elsewhere must always bear in mind the heat factor. His two-deck betting strategy would likely get you booted out fairly quickly in many US casinos. For playing shoe games in the US, a back-counting strategy would likely be more advisable (and more profitable) than a 1-16 spread. To back-count is to watch the cards being dealt on a table without playing, ready to jump in and play when the count goes up and you will be starting play with an advantage. Table-hopping is an extension of back-counting that pros use in big casinos, which tend to have multiple pits with many blackjack tables. Table-hoppers leave the game when the count goes negative and start play at another table. They refuse to play when the casino has a big edge. The Insurance Bet Basic strategy recommends not taking insurance, but card counting sometimes indicates an insurance advantage for the card counter. With the OPP Count, if we start our count at +6 at the beginning of the shoe, the insurance index is +18 for the six-deck game, +20 for the eight-deck game, and +11 for the two-deck game. This means that if you are playing in a six-deck game and the running count reaches +18 or more, and the dealer has an Ace up, you should place the insurance bet, because you will win the bet more than 35 % of the time. Simulations with PowerSim have confirmed these index numbers. Final Thoughts on the Easy OPP Card Counting System OPP is a very simple system to learn and to use. Practice at home, go to a casino and stand near a table and practice the count while others play. I know people who have mastered the system in less than a weekend and now they are part of the select group of players who are making money playing blackjack. ♠ Note: Although hundreds of independent researchers and mathematicians have proven that card counting is a winning strategy over the long run, gambling is always risky. Anything can happen in the short run. No one can ever guarantee that you will win even when you are playing with an advantage. Never gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. 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Card counting - Wikipedia

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HOW TO COUNT CARDS (THE EASY WAY)

Counting cards is easier than you think. Counting cards with my modified method is a piece of cake. Now you can look forward to your next Las Vegas trip!

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