Basic Blackjack counting in 5 minutes by Jake Cooper Medium

NOTE: I’m not a Blackjack expert. This is merely an educational piece and not intended to be used for profit. This past weekend I found myself on a trip to Vegas with less than 24h of notice. I used… Jake Cooper

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6 min read·Mar 11, 2019

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If you know what Blackjack is, you can skip to “Basic Strategy”.

Black Jack is a common card game played all around the world. You’re initially dealt two cards face up, and the dealer has one face down and one face up. The goal of the game is to beat the dealer in being closest to 21. If you do, you get twice as much as you bet. If you tie, usually nothing happens. If you lose, you lose your bet. 10, Jack, Queen, King are worth 10 points, Ace is worth 1 or 11. When the “action” comes to you, you can decide whether to hit (by touching the felt of the table) or stand (usually with a horizontal wave of your hand). It’s one of the more fare games in the casino, plus it’s pretty fun. As a result, it’s quite popular and you can find a blackjack table at every casino.

Basic Strategy

In Black Jack there’s a thing called “Basic Strategy”. It represents the mathematically optimal strategy to get ~50/50 odds between the house and the player. The match-up sheet looks a little something like this.

Basic Right? (From: wizardofodds.com) This “simple” set of rules make Blackjack ~50/50. Your expected value over a long sample of plays is whatever you put in. It’s less complicated than it looks, but first lets go over some terms:

  • “4–8 Decks”: Casinos in Vegas usually play 6–8 decks so that people can’t easily count cards over a single deck and to minimize shuffling. These rules will apply for any standard Casino in Vegas (Aria, MGM, etc).
  • Soft vs Hard hands: A soft hand is any hand with an Ace, because an Ace can count for 1 or 11. A hard hand is therefore any hand which does not contain an ace.
  • “Dealer stands on soft 17”: If the dealer has A-6, they will not hit. These are the tables you want, since if you consult the chart, you’re supposed to hit soft 17s. Advantage, you.
  • “Pair/Split”: Two of any of the same card. Getting dealt two Aces means you get to play both hands individually.
  • “Double”: This is the best tool in your arsenal. It allows you to double your bet AFTER you’ve seen the dealers cards. How broken is that?

Now, the standard set of rules is pretty intimidating, so I’ve distilled it into 7 basic tips. These tips won’t cover all the match-ups, but they should give you ~85%.

Tip #1 (Hard): Stand on 17+. Why?: Anything 17 or greater is a solid hand.

Tip #2 (Hard): Stand on 13–16 unless dealer has 7+ showing.Why? 13–16 isn’t a great hand; but the dealer has to hit below anything 17 so they might bust.

Tip #3 (Hard): 12 vs 6 is the WORST playable hand in blackjack.Why? Alright, it’s not the worst, but it sucks because (mathematically) you should stand here.

Tip #4 (All): Always double up 9, 10, 11 if you’ve got the dealer beat.Why? Your chances of winning that hand by hitting a 10 are 33% in a fresh deck.

Tip #5 (Soft): If your dealer has a 5,6 and you’ve got a soft hand, double up.Why? With a 5,6 the dealer needs to hit another 6,5 to get to 11. They’re likely to miss that and bust on the 3rd card.

Splitting

Tip #6: Split any hand where you have the dealer covered, except 5s, 10s.Why? Splitting allows you hedge your bets. The more hands you play, the closer you get to your expected value.

Tip #7: Don’t split 5s, 10s. Why? 5s give you 10, which you should double. 10s give you 20, which is hard to beat.

Pre Casino

Note: ONLY GO INTO THE CASINO WITH WHAT YOU’RE WILLING TO LOSE. I cannot stress this enough. I know too many friends who don’t set limits and end up taking out money while they’re tilted (losing). Don’t be a moron; cap your loses. I also try and cap my gains at 3x.

A strategy with helps me is to divide up the amount I’m willing to lose between the days. e.g Let’s say I’m there for 3 days with $900. My bankroll looks like this:

  • Day 1: $300
  • Day 2: Day 1’s balance + $300
  • Day 3: Day 2’s balance + $300

Likely I’ll round out the $900 to $1000 and drop it on Day 3 just to make the math pretty.

In The Casino

When you enter the casino, you’re looking for the following tables:

  • $5–$10 minimum bet
  • 2–3 people
  • Dealer stands on soft 17
  • Blackjack Bonus (Usually 20%)

The last two gives you a bit of an edge, which helps. There are tables with “Free Bet Blackjack”. What this means is that if you hit doubles, a 9, 10 (J, Q, K), or 11 (A), they’ll double your bet for free. This comes with the caveat that the dealer will “push” on a 22. I personally stick to the regular game.

Once you find a table, sit down, and buy in. Put $5 in the betting circle, and wait for your deal. Play some hands, order a coffee/water (Drinks are free but I don’t usually drink while I’m playing).

If you lose 50% of your stand, get up and leave. If you double your stack, get up and leave. If you finish a “shoe” (Deck of cards) get up and leave. The idea here is for you to move around tables so you don’t fry your brain, and allow you to consult the Basic Strategy chart in this article (No phones at the Poker Table). Make sure you’re playing the right moves, and start learning about some of the more nuanced plays, like standing on 9,9 vs a 7 showing.

Advanced

NOTE: Only go over this section if you know Basic Strategy inside and out. You’ll shoot yourself in the foot and it’s a lot to keep track of in the beginning.

Once you’ve accomplished Basic Strategy, you can start to employ what’s called “Hi Lo”. Hi Lo is a way of calculating which cards the deck is likely to spew out when you tell the dealer to “hit”. It works something like this;

  • Any card from 2–6 is +1.
  • Any card from 7–9 is 0.
  • Any card from 10-A is -1.

As the cards are coming out, add or subtract one based on the chart to get your “Running Count”. From here, you divide the Running Count by the number of remaining decks (Usually 6–8) to get the “True Count”. This true count allows you to approximate the number of high or low cards remaining in the deck. e.g if your True Count is +3, it’s likely there is a high card coming so you can use that when deciding your betting or hits.

An example round In the above example, the running count is +1. Left to right players: -1, +2, -2, +1. Dealer is +1, so that’s +1 overall.

As a rule of thumb, you want to bet more if the True Count is higher, since the player gains an advantage when there are more high cards left in the deck.

This is why you’ll often see people join your table right after a shuffle/”Fresh Shoe”; they can start counting on a fresh deck where there are 0 unknowns. Additionally, you may see people watch the first couple hands after a shuffle to see if the True Count increases, at which point they’ll drop their chips and play, sometimes multiple hands at once to capitalize on this.

Conclusion

This is by no means an exhaustive guide, and I’m hardly a Blackjack Grand Master (In fact I still lost money this weekend). I just wanted to distill all my knowledge down to a bite sized chunk that I could come back to, and I figured it would be worth sharing.

Thanks for reading.

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The origins of card counting can be traced back to the early 1960s when mathematicians and professional gamblers discovered a method to gain an advantage in the game of blackjack. This marked the beginning of a new era in the history of card counting. Early card counters developed various strategies to improve their chances of winning. One such strategy was the Hi-Lo system, which assigned a value of +1 to low cards (2-6) and -1 to high cards (10-Ace), with neutral cards (7-9) assigned a value of 0. Early Pioneers in Card Counting To delve further into the origins of card counting, it’s important to recognize the early pioneers who paved the way for the development of this groundbreaking technique. Card counting strategies and techniques have evolved over time, but it was the pioneering efforts of individuals that laid the foundation for its success. One famous card counter in history is Edward Thorp, a mathematics professor who developed the first card counting system in the 1960s. His book, ‘Beat the Dealer,’ introduced the concept to the public and changed the game of blackjack forever. Another notable figure is Ken Uston, who refined the techniques and used them to win millions of dollars in casinos. These early pioneers in card counting demonstrated that with skill and strategy, it was possible to gain an edge over the house in blackjack. The MIT Blackjack Team The MIT Blackjack Team revolutionized the world of card counting by employing a highly coordinated and successful system. Their unique strategies allowed them to consistently beat the casinos and win millions of dollars. The team consisted of several notable members, including Bill Kaplan, J.P. Massar, and John Chang. Kaplan, the founder of the team, developed a card counting system known as the ‘Big Player’ technique. This involved using a team of players, with one person acting as the ‘big player’ placing large bets when the count was favorable, while others acted as ‘spotters’ to keep track of the count and signal the big player when to bet big. The team’s success and their strategies were later popularized in the book ‘Bringing Down the House’ and the movie ‘21.’ The Impact of Edward Thorp’s Book After the success of the MIT Blackjack Team, the world of card counting experienced a significant shift with the release of Edward Thorp’s groundbreaking book. Thorp’s book, titled ‘Beat the Dealer,’ had a profound influence on the gambling industry and the evolution of blackjack strategies. It introduced the concept of card counting, which allowed players to gain an advantage over the casino by keeping track of the ratio of high to low cards remaining in the deck. This knowledge revolutionized the way blackjack was played, challenging the casinos and forcing them to change their rules and procedures. Thorp’s book laid the foundation for modern card counting techniques and inspired a new generation of blackjack players to explore the possibilities of beating the house. Modern Card Counting Techniques One effective technique used in modern card counting is the Hi-Lo system. This advanced card counting strategy assigns a value of +1 to low cards (2-6), a value of 0 to neutral cards (7-9), and a value of -1 to high cards (10-Ace). By keeping a running count of the cards as they’re dealt, you can gain an advantage over the casino. However, it’s important to note that applying card counting in online blackjack games can be more challenging due to the use of automatic shuffling machines and the inability to see the physical cards. Some online casinos also employ algorithms that shuffle the deck after every hand, making card counting virtually impossible. Therefore, it’s crucial to choose the right platform if you intend to use card counting as a strategy in online blackjack games. Conclusion In conclusion, mastering the art of card counting in blackjack requires a deep understanding of its origins and the techniques developed by early pioneers like the MIT Blackjack Team and Edward Thorp. By utilizing modern card counting techniques, players can gain an advantage over the house and increase their chances of winning. However, it’s important to note that card counting isn’t without its risks and should be approached with caution and adherence to legal and ethical guidelines.

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